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Did we ever need this disease?

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Tom Kunich

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Oct 12, 2022, 3:03:33 PM10/12/22
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Why did civilizations come and go?

It turns out that comfort ends civilizations. When you have everything you don't have the time for those pesky children.

Sound incorrect? Well Mao ordered that families could only have a single child. Later when it became clear what this did to China, they changed it to two children. But it is too late now. The older and more skilled Chinese generation do no longer have a younger generation to teach what to do and how to do it. They do not even have the time to mechanize everything to maintain the Chinese civilization. It is dying.

Europe is ALMOST but not quite in the same state. The baby boomers from the end of WW II are very close to dying to the last one. Slocumb is our local representative of this period and he is so close to death that we will very soon see the end of his postings. There was a second postwar baby boom and those people are now in their 60's. But by then reproduction had become a sin with claims that there were too many people in the world. Mind you that was in a time when we had one forth the population we have now.

We still have an entire environmental movement that proclaims that there are too many people in the world. Do you suppose that they will continue with that refrain after they can no longer purchase food, not because it can't be grown but because there is no one to grow it?

There is still a lop sided young to old ratio in the USA, Central and South America and in the Muslim countries. But China is already as good as dead. As is Russia. Who do you think dies in wars? Old people who have made those wars? Russia depended on large armies and they thought the single person unimportant. The US did the reverse - it reduced the size of assault forces as massive loses cause people to not enlist and the draft became politically incorrect.

Now the US only has to get over the Obama era idea that the only people smart enough to do anything have to go to college. Imagine the nitwits that came out of Krygowski's classrooms or graduated with Liebermann! And yet I starting from electronics basics from the Air Force became successful enough that after the November election when the Democrats are destroyed everywhere but in California I will be more than sitting pretty.

We don't need to challenge Russia or China, their own Socialist discissions have destroyed them. They are as good as gone.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 12, 2022, 5:31:31 PM10/12/22
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On 10/12/2022 3:03 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>
>
> We still have an entire environmental movement that proclaims that there are too many people in the world. Do you suppose that they will continue with that refrain after they can no longer purchase food, not because it can't be grown but because there is no one to grow it?

Take heart, Tom! There are lots of people who want to enter the U.S.
across our southern border. They can do the farm work and save you from
starvation!

--
- Frank Krygowski

Geraard Spergen

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Oct 12, 2022, 5:32:07 PM10/12/22
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>We still have an entire environmental movement that proclaims that there are too many people in the world. Do you suppose that they will continue with that refrain after they can no longer purchase food, not because it can't be grown but because there is no one to grow it?

Is this a trick question?

Catrike Rider

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Oct 12, 2022, 6:38:21 PM10/12/22
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Many need a place to live. How many can you put up?

John B.

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Oct 12, 2022, 7:12:44 PM10/12/22
to
On Wed, 12 Oct 2022 12:03:31 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
<cycl...@gmail.com> wrote:

>Why did civilizations come and go?
>
>It turns out that comfort ends civilizations. When you have everything you don't have the time for those pesky children.
>
>Sound incorrect? Well Mao ordered that families could only have a single child. Later when it became clear what this did to China, they changed it to two children. But it is too late now. The older and more skilled Chinese generation do no longer have a younger generation to teach what to do and how to do it. They do not even have the time to mechanize everything to maintain the Chinese civilization. It is dying.

Well lets see
China
0 - 14 years of age 17.29% of population
15 - 65 70.37%
over 65 12.34%

USA
0 - 14 years of age 18.46% of population
15 - 65 64.69%
over 65 16.85%


>
>Europe is ALMOST but not quite in the same state. The baby boomers from the end of WW II are very close to dying to the last one. Slocumb is our local representative of this period and he is so close to death that we will very soon see the end of his postings. There was a second postwar baby boom and those people are now in their 60's. But by then reproduction had become a sin with claims that there were too many people in the world. Mind you that was in a time when we had one forth the population we have now.

France
0 - 14 years of age 18.36% of population
15 - 65 61.18%
over 65 20.46%

Germany
0 - 14 years of age 12.89% of population
15 - 65 64.12%
over 65 22.99%

U.K.
0 - 14 years of age 17.63% of population
15 - 65 63.89%
over 65 18.48%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_structure

>We still have an entire environmental movement that proclaims that there are too many people in the world. Do you suppose that they will continue with that refrain after they can no longer purchase food, not because it can't be grown but because there is no one to grow it?
>
>There is still a lop sided young to old ratio in the USA, Central and South America and in the Muslim countries. But China is already as good as dead. As is Russia. Who do you think dies in wars? Old people who have made those wars? Russia depended on large armies and they thought the single person unimportant. The US did the reverse - it reduced the size of assault forces as massive loses cause people to not enlist and the draft became politically incorrect.
>
>Now the US only has to get over the Obama era idea that the only people smart enough to do anything have to go to college. Imagine the nitwits that came out of Krygowski's classrooms or graduated with Liebermann! And yet I starting from electronics basics from the Air Force became successful enough that after the November election when the Democrats are destroyed everywhere but in California I will be more than sitting pretty.
>
>We don't need to challenge Russia or China, their own Socialist discissions have destroyed them. They are as good as gone.

Or to put it another way, "Old Tommy is so stupid that he doesn't know
what he is talking about"

Did anyone hear the story about Tommy asking someone what the next
letter in the alphabet after "x" was? the bloke he asked answered "Y"
and Tommy said, "'cause I wanna know" (:-)

--
Cheers,

John B.

funkma...@hotmail.com

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Oct 13, 2022, 6:09:46 AM10/13/22
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On Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 5:32:07 PM UTC-4, Geraard Spergen wrote:
> >We still have an entire environmental movement that proclaims that there are too many people in the world. Do you suppose that they will continue with that refrain after they can no longer purchase food, not because it can't be grown but because there is no one to grow it?
> Is this a trick question?

No, just a stupid one.

funkma...@hotmail.com

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Oct 13, 2022, 6:17:03 AM10/13/22
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The point that there are quite a few states with Democrat supermajorities in no danger of being 'flipped' notwithstanding, Tommy seems to have forgotten which state he lives in.

>
> We don't need to challenge Russia or China, their own Socialist discissions have destroyed them. They are as good as gone.

Tell that to the people of Kiev, you fucking idiot.

Tim R

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Oct 13, 2022, 8:51:10 AM10/13/22
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On Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 3:03:33 PM UTC-4, cycl...@gmail.com wrote:
> Why did civilizations come and go?
>
> It turns out that comfort ends civilizations. When you have everything you don't have the time for those pesky children.
>

Tommy, I know it's unfair, but they hide the secrets...............................in books.

Let me recommend a couple.

Collapse, by Jared Diamond. It's a little dated, but it is an indepth look at five historic civilizations that collapsed, and the factors that went into that.

Secondly, there's The Dawn of Everything, A New History of Humanity, by David Graeber. This has an interesting slant, it looks more at social conventions and how humans interacted, and it has much more information on civilizations in North and South America than most treatments. It is long and information dense, and only someone either smart or persistent will get through it, but it is worth the effort.

The absolute classic on the flow of resources is of course Making the Modern World, Materials and Dematerialization, by Vaclav Smil.

The carrying capacity of the world is 1.8 billion at the quality of life of the US, or 40 billion at that of Bangladesh. So population is not the limiting factor.

funkma...@hotmail.com

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Oct 13, 2022, 9:04:51 AM10/13/22
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On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 8:51:10 AM UTC-4, timoth...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 3:03:33 PM UTC-4, cycl...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Why did civilizations come and go?
> >
> > It turns out that comfort ends civilizations. When you have everything you don't have the time for those pesky children.
> >
> Tommy, I know it's unfair, but they hide the secrets...............................in books.

But Tim! Haven't you heard? Tommy has "read out" three libraries!!!!

AMuzi

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Oct 13, 2022, 9:35:49 AM10/13/22
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I'm not so sure about extrapolations from present
experience, be they Malthus or Al Gore.

Humans are most noted for endless curiosity, innovation and
adaptation. 'Carrying capacity' assumes static technology[1]
and social structure[2] which may well not be the case.

[1] No one saw the 'green revolution' coming except Norman
Borlaug. Predictions of famine have proved inaccurate:

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-production-of-cereal-and-grain-legumes-over-the-past-50-years-a-b-Total-world_fig1_305788911

[2]Economists such as DeSoto indicate that overall
productivity, not only agricultural, would rise
exponentially in South America with clear land titles and
modern banking. One of many possible advances we may or may
not see.

--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971


Tim R

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Oct 13, 2022, 11:20:04 AM10/13/22
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On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 9:35:49 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
> I'm not so sure about extrapolations from present
> experience, be they Malthus or Al Gore.
>
> Humans are most noted for endless curiosity, innovation and
> adaptation. 'Carrying capacity' assumes static technology[1]
> and social structure[2] which may well not be the case.
>
Carrying capacity estimations are largely based on known material resources and energy inputs. There is only so much iron in the earth's crust, so there are only so many cars that can be built. Etc. There are of course large uncertainties and technologies can improve, as you point out. But I don't think there is any doubt that the Earth cannot support a large population of people with the environmental impact of the average US citizen.

Social structure though has great potential for change, and it's a big part of the thesis of the Graeber book. (He takes issue with the more traditional views of Diamond and Harari, in Guns Germs Steel and Sapiens respectively on the direction of civilization development.) He says the traditional view that we "rushed headlong into our chains" in developing agriculture and then industrializing is flawed. There are many societies that went that direction and reversed course.



> [2]Economists such as DeSoto indicate that overall
> productivity, not only agricultural, would rise
> exponentially in South America with clear land titles and
> modern banking. One of many possible advances we may or may
> not see.

Currently economists seem to measure productivity with the sole metric being stock prices. I would assert those are irrelevant to the quality of life of about 99% of the world's population.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 13, 2022, 11:54:22 AM10/13/22
to
On 10/13/2022 8:51 AM, Tim R wrote:
> On Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 3:03:33 PM UTC-4, cycl...@gmail.com wrote:
>> Why did civilizations come and go?
>>
>> It turns out that comfort ends civilizations. When you have everything you don't have the time for those pesky children.
>>
>
> Tommy, I know it's unfair, but they hide the secrets...............................in books.
>
> Let me recommend a couple.
>
> Collapse, by Jared Diamond. It's a little dated, but it is an indepth look at five historic civilizations that collapsed, and the factors that went into that.
>
> Secondly, there's The Dawn of Everything, A New History of Humanity, by David Graeber. This has an interesting slant, it looks more at social conventions and how humans interacted, and it has much more information on civilizations in North and South America than most treatments. It is long and information dense, and only someone either smart or persistent will get through it, but it is worth the effort.

Thanks for the recommendations.

--
- Frank Krygowski

AMuzi

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Oct 13, 2022, 3:07:53 PM10/13/22
to
I have not seen that although if one substitute 'politicians
and pundits' for 'economists' then you're spot on.

And future 'available resources' are also unknown. Nuclear
power wasn't anticipated before 1945 and even now the limits
are political, not in physics or engineering.

You mention iron and steel but we do not know future
efficiency and penetration of recycling. As regards autos,
other materials have so far displaced a lot of steel
content, a trend which may (or may not) continue[1].

Finally, nothing is absolutely limited as long as you have a
proton source! The Soviets made gold that way in 1970 (At a
cost then of many times the actual price of gold, but they
actually did it.) There may well come a day when
synthetically made iron is the only source but that day is
far away.

[1]In the 1980s, the common wisdom was that auto fabrication
would rapidly move away from steel. Then the steels changed
with metallurgical innovation, such that steel content has
dropped but not as significantly as projected.

Mike A Schwab

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Oct 13, 2022, 3:25:53 PM10/13/22
to
Many of the limits are discussed in Limits To Growth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
One critical material is copper for electrical wires, we spend tremendous amounts of money to mine low concentrations of ore.

Unlimited food and comfortable living with little effort (Utopia) leads to collapse. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-mouse-utopias-1960s-led-grim-predictions-humans-180954423/

Radey Shouman

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Oct 13, 2022, 3:44:54 PM10/13/22
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After we have consumed the core of the planet? Iron is not likely to be
in shortage any time soon. As for making gold, substitution and
creation of new materials is a certainty, as long as there is a supply
of sufficiently cheap energy, the master resource. Without it, we're
right back to sticks and stones.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 13, 2022, 5:22:22 PM10/13/22
to
On Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 2:32:07 PM UTC-7, Geraard Spergen wrote:
> >We still have an entire environmental movement that proclaims that there are too many people in the world. Do you suppose that they will continue with that refrain after they can no longer purchase food, not because it can't be grown but because there is no one to grow it?
> Is this a trick question?
To have a stable population you have to have more than 60% of the population well below retirement age. Is that tricky? 80% of China is at or approaching retirement age. It doesn't take much effort to watch what happens to them.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 13, 2022, 5:30:25 PM10/13/22
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Tim, I read every book in three major libraries and you want to tell me about books? If you believe that somehow the world's population has to do with the sucess of any system of government you are welcome to believe that. But I suggest you don't invest in it.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 13, 2022, 5:40:10 PM10/13/22
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Exactly how do you propose to run out of iron when it is infinitely recyclable and 5% of the crust is iron and 80% of the core is iron?

AMuzi

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Oct 13, 2022, 5:42:03 PM10/13/22
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In theory breeder reactors address that but, again, those
methods won't be necessary for a very long while (during
which time other problems will arise!)

Tom Kunich

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Oct 13, 2022, 5:52:31 PM10/13/22
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There was a very strong reason that people used to have large families as late as the 1920's. Then medical advances allowed families to be smaller with no changes in the ratios of young to old. Think about it - the stupid six are the end of their line. They will be unable to pass their wokeness off onto others. I'm sure that Frank tried his best to brainwash his students but people tend to consider themselves first so it is doubtful anyone gave him the slightest thought.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 13, 2022, 5:55:16 PM10/13/22
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Thanks to the Cretaceous era there will be endless energy

Jeff Liebermann

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Oct 13, 2022, 5:55:22 PM10/13/22
to
On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 15:44:51 -0400, Radey Shouman
<sho...@comcast.net> wrote:

>As for making gold, substitution and
>creation of new materials is a certainty, as long as there is a supply
>of sufficiently cheap energy, the master resource. Without it, we're
>right back to sticks and stones.

Making cheap artificial gold is self-defeating. Gold gets its value
from its scarcity. Were we to contrive a way of making cheap gold,
such as asteroid mining, the price of gold would fall making it less
profitable to synthesize.

A more likely candidate for synthesis are the various hydrocarbon
compounds. We're already converting different forms of hydrocarbons
into more desirable hydrocarbons for fuels and lubricants. It can
also be done to make food, which is full of hydrocarbon compounds.

"Food from Coal-derived Materials by Microbial Synthesis"
<https://www.nature.com/articles/211735b0> (Aug 13, 1966)
"Recently, it has been found that micro-organisms convert petroleum or
petroleum fractions to protein, vitamins, or amino-acids"

"Can Food Be Made From Coal?"
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/food/1984/05/27/can-food-be-made-from-coal/d80567ac-c656-4e0b-9f54-d505bd6d261a/>

--
Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

Tom Kunich

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Oct 13, 2022, 5:58:36 PM10/13/22
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Thorium Reactors are breeders and thorium is the most common radioactive element.

Catrike Rider

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Oct 13, 2022, 6:50:34 PM10/13/22
to
On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 14:55:15 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com>
wrote:

>On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 15:44:51 -0400, Radey Shouman
><sho...@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>>As for making gold, substitution and
>>creation of new materials is a certainty, as long as there is a supply
>>of sufficiently cheap energy, the master resource. Without it, we're
>>right back to sticks and stones.
>
>Making cheap artificial gold is self-defeating. Gold gets its value
>from its scarcity. Were we to contrive a way of making cheap gold,
>such as asteroid mining, the price of gold would fall making it less
>profitable to synthesize.
>
>A more likely candidate for synthesis are the various hydrocarbon
>compounds. We're already converting different forms of hydrocarbons
>into more desirable hydrocarbons for fuels and lubricants. It can
>also be done to make food, which is full of hydrocarbon compounds.
>
>"Food from Coal-derived Materials by Microbial Synthesis"
><https://www.nature.com/articles/211735b0> (Aug 13, 1966)
>"Recently, it has been found that micro-organisms convert petroleum or
>petroleum fractions to protein, vitamins, or amino-acids"
>
>"Can Food Be Made From Coal?"
><https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/food/1984/05/27/can-food-be-made-from-coal/d80567ac-c656-4e0b-9f54-d505bd6d261a/>

So far, anyway, the plant based "meat" isn't even going over very
well.

John B.

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Oct 13, 2022, 6:53:02 PM10/13/22
to
What wild eyed idiot are you quoting? Whoever it i is a fool.

The median age in China is 38.4 years and in the U.S. it is 38.5

\
--
Cheers,

John B.

John B.

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Oct 13, 2022, 7:52:16 PM10/13/22
to
If you assume that stock prices are a measurement of the productivity
of a culture then I would have to say that it is an indicator of
"quality of life".

When I came to Thailand, some 50 years ago, the average Thai lived in
the country and, perhaps, owned a small plot of land, and grew rice as
both a food and a cash crop. This was, of course all hand labor and
thus the amount of rice grown was largely dependent on the number of
"hands" in the family.

Today, with the growth of both industry and mechanized farming the old
ways are long gone and the average Thai is far better off then his
parents.

--
Cheers,

John B.

AMuzi

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Oct 13, 2022, 8:55:47 PM10/13/22
to
On 10/13/2022 4:55 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 15:44:51 -0400, Radey Shouman
> <sho...@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>> As for making gold, substitution and
>> creation of new materials is a certainty, as long as there is a supply
>> of sufficiently cheap energy, the master resource. Without it, we're
>> right back to sticks and stones.
>
> Making cheap artificial gold is self-defeating. Gold gets its value
> from its scarcity. Were we to contrive a way of making cheap gold,
> such as asteroid mining, the price of gold would fall making it less
> profitable to synthesize.
>
> A more likely candidate for synthesis are the various hydrocarbon
> compounds. We're already converting different forms of hydrocarbons
> into more desirable hydrocarbons for fuels and lubricants. It can
> also be done to make food, which is full of hydrocarbon compounds.
>
> "Food from Coal-derived Materials by Microbial Synthesis"
> <https://www.nature.com/articles/211735b0> (Aug 13, 1966)
> "Recently, it has been found that micro-organisms convert petroleum or
> petroleum fractions to protein, vitamins, or amino-acids"
>
> "Can Food Be Made From Coal?"
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/food/1984/05/27/can-food-be-made-from-coal/d80567ac-c656-4e0b-9f54-d505bd6d261a/>
>

You're correct about gold price/supply

Gold is also an industrial metal - everything from dental
crowns to computer and electronic contacts.

AMuzi

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Oct 13, 2022, 8:57:37 PM10/13/22
to
One would be hard pressed to say that either society is
working well.

John B.

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Oct 13, 2022, 9:56:14 PM10/13/22
to
Well, if you compare the present Chinese society with what it was in,
say, the Long March days, it is highly successful, or perhaps that of
Taiwan that was a dictatorship from the conquering of the island in
1949 until 1987 during which the government carried out what was
called "the white terror"which killed some 18,000 - 28,000 for
"anti-state" activities". This law was not repealed until 1991.

--
Cheers,

John B.

Radey Shouman

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Oct 13, 2022, 9:57:29 PM10/13/22
to
Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com> writes:

> On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 15:44:51 -0400, Radey Shouman
> <sho...@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>>As for making gold, substitution and
>>creation of new materials is a certainty, as long as there is a supply
>>of sufficiently cheap energy, the master resource. Without it, we're
>>right back to sticks and stones.
>
> Making cheap artificial gold is self-defeating. Gold gets its value
> from its scarcity. Were we to contrive a way of making cheap gold,
> such as asteroid mining, the price of gold would fall making it less
> profitable to synthesize.

Were gold cheap any number of uses could be found for it. Even now
there are practical applications.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 13, 2022, 10:03:21 PM10/13/22
to
A thousand and one uses for gold and the expert tells us that its value would fall if we got more of it.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 13, 2022, 10:05:19 PM10/13/22
to
As usual the Slocumb idiot doesn't understand the difference between 40 and 63. On a good day he could make a smart snail.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 13, 2022, 10:06:17 PM10/13/22
to
Correct, if we had twice the supply it would not effect the price - the STOCK market does that.

John B.

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Oct 13, 2022, 10:13:47 PM10/13/22
to
On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 19:05:17 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
<cycl...@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 5:57:37 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
>> On 10/13/2022 5:52 PM, John B. wrote:
>> > On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 14:22:20 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
>> > <cycl...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> >
>> >> On Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 2:32:07 PM UTC-7, Geraard Spergen wrote:
>> >>>> We still have an entire environmental movement that proclaims that there are too many people in the world. Do you suppose that they will continue with that refrain after they can no longer purchase food, not because it can't be grown but because there is no one to grow it?
>> >>> Is this a trick question?
>> >> To have a stable population you have to have more than 60% of the population well below retirement age. Is that tricky? 80% of China is at or approaching retirement age. It doesn't take much effort to watch what happens to them.
>> >
>> > What wild eyed idiot are you quoting? Whoever it i is a fool.
>> >
>> > The median age in China is 38.4 years and in the U.S. it is 38.5
>> >
>> > \
>> >
>> One would be hard pressed to say that either society is
>> working well.
>> --
>> Andrew Muzi
>> <www.yellowjersey.org/>
>> Open every day since 1 April, 1971
>
>As usual the Slocumb idiot doesn't understand the difference between 40 and 63. On a good day he could make a smart snail.

Perhaps, but I do know the "difference" between fact and fantasy,
which you don't seem to be able to comprehend.

Although I will say that you do have a very active imagination :-(
--
Cheers,

John B.

Jeff Liebermann

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Oct 14, 2022, 12:33:52 AM10/14/22
to
On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 21:57:25 -0400, Radey Shouman
<sho...@comcast.net> wrote:

>Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com> writes:
>
>> On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 15:44:51 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> <sho...@comcast.net> wrote:
>>
>>>As for making gold, substitution and
>>>creation of new materials is a certainty, as long as there is a supply
>>>of sufficiently cheap energy, the master resource. Without it, we're
>>>right back to sticks and stones.
>>
>> Making cheap artificial gold is self-defeating. Gold gets its value
>> from its scarcity. Were we to contrive a way of making cheap gold,
>> such as asteroid mining, the price of gold would fall making it less
>> profitable to synthesize.

>Were gold cheap any number of uses could be found for it. Even now
>there are practical applications.

Sure. I would love to have all my PCB's (printed circuit boards) gold
plated like HP used to do. A lower price for gold could open new
applications and thus increase demand, at least to a point where it
becomes a commodity item instead of a luxury. In the distant past,
that was the case with many scarce commodities such as sugar, salt,
refrigerated meat, glass and other things we currently consider to be
commonly available.

That wasn't always the case. There was a rumor driven shortage of
toilet paper during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Some
clown cornered a large part of the US supply for paper bathroom
products and tried to sell it for exorbitant prices. A few months
later, the supply magically reappeared and he was stuck with
warehouses full of unsellable toilet paper. This also happened with
natural gas prices after widespread implementation of fracking.

"Law of Supply and Demand in Economics"
<https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/law-of-supply-demand.asp>

"In 2020, U.S. natural gas prices were the lowest in decades"
<https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46376>

>> A more likely candidate for synthesis are the various hydrocarbon
>> compounds. We're already converting different forms of hydrocarbons
>> into more desirable hydrocarbons for fuels and lubricants. It can
>> also be done to make food, which is full of hydrocarbon compounds.
>>
>> "Food from Coal-derived Materials by Microbial Synthesis"
>> <https://www.nature.com/articles/211735b0> (Aug 13, 1966)
>> "Recently, it has been found that micro-organisms convert petroleum or
>> petroleum fractions to protein, vitamins, or amino-acids"
>>
>> "Can Food Be Made From Coal?"
>> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/food/1984/05/27/can-food-be-made-from-coal/d80567ac-c656-4e0b-9f54-d505bd6d261a/>

--

Jeff Liebermann

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Oct 14, 2022, 12:43:33 AM10/14/22
to
>Correct, if we had twice the supply it would not effect the price - the STOCK market does that.

Wrong, as usual:

"What Moves Gold Prices?"
<https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/031915/what-moves-gold-prices.asp>
"Supply, demand, and investor behavior are key drivers of gold
prices."

John B.

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Oct 14, 2022, 2:23:19 AM10/14/22
to
On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 21:33:45 -0700, Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com>
wrote:
Re Fracking. It is very much a matter of what comes first, the chicken
or the egg. Fracking is, in comparison to conventional drilling, a
very expensive method thus if gas and oil prices aren't high it isn't
economical but, of course, increases supplies if priced increase to
the point that it becomes financially practical (:-)

Conventional drilling can be financially viable for costs as little as
$10/bbl in Saudi and perhaps $30/bbl in the U.S., while the U.S. Shale
oil fracking, break even, level is in the range of as cheap as $30 to
as much as $60/bbl.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/051215/cost-shale-oil-versus-conventional-oil.asp

--
Cheers,

John B.

AMuzi

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:13:48 AM10/14/22
to
heh heh conveniently ignoring the CCP butcher's bill.

https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentary/the-legacy-mao-zedong-mass-murder

USA has severe and pressing issues but not at anywhere near
that level yet.

AMuzi

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:20:17 AM10/14/22
to
Also directed 'horizontal' drilling which, along with
fracturing and other technical improvements belied the
"world will run out of oil in ten years" scam.

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/
\
Resources are not 'static' if you include human innovation
into the calculation.

Tim R

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:38:41 AM10/14/22
to
On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 5:55:22 PM UTC-4, jeff.li...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> A more likely candidate for synthesis are the various hydrocarbon
> compounds. We're already converting different forms of hydrocarbons
> into more desirable hydrocarbons for fuels and lubricants. It can
> also be done to make food, which is full of hydrocarbon compounds.
>
> Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
> PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
> Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
> Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

Dinosaur juice (and I guess we should include coal, though a bit more expensive to use than oil) is the base chemical stock for just about every other chemical product.

And we're stupid enough to burn it.

It is a finite resource, as there is no practical way to recycle it once burned, and no cheap way when used for more valuable products. Granted we keep getting better at extracting it, but the harder this is the more expensive. One of the major impacts on the Roman Empire was the increasing cost of wood as they'd burned everything close to them.

Andre Jute

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Oct 14, 2022, 12:08:56 PM10/14/22
to
On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 1:51:10 PM UTC+1, timoth...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> The absolute classic on the flow of resources is of course Making the Modern World, Materials and Dematerialization, by Vaclav Smil.
>
> The carrying capacity of the world is 1.8 billion at the quality of life of the US, or 40 billion at that of Bangladesh. So population is not the limiting factor.
>
Vaclav Smil, a left-winger with brains, nobody's fool, explains more than adequately how the world really works, and why fossil fuels are our future, because the world just cannot work without them, period. Vaclav Smil actually agrees with, not with the RBT clowns.
>
You should read more Vaclav Smil, Timothy. Try How the World Really Works.
>
Andre Jute
The problem with the RBT el Stupidos is that they not only lie all the time, they're genuinely illiterate.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 14, 2022, 12:21:49 PM10/14/22
to
On 10/13/2022 10:03 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>

> A thousand and one uses for gold and the expert tells us that its value would fall if we got more of it.

Wow.

Tom, with all your claimed economic brilliance, I'd have thought you'd
have heard of "supply and demand."

--
- Frank Krygowski

Andre Jute

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 1:43:34 PM10/14/22
to
On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 2:35:49 PM UTC+1, AMuzi wrote:
> On 10/13/2022 7:51 AM, Tim R wrote:
> > On Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 3:03:33 PM UTC-4, cycl...@gmail.com wrote:
> >> Why did civilizations come and go?
> >>
> >> It turns out that comfort ends civilizations. When you have everything you don't have the time for those pesky children.
> >>
> >
> > Tommy, I know it's unfair, but they hide the secrets...............................in books.
> >
> > Let me recommend a couple.
> >
> > Collapse, by Jared Diamond. It's a little dated, but it is an indepth look at five historic civilizations that collapsed, and the factors that went into that.
> >
> > Secondly, there's The Dawn of Everything, A New History of Humanity, by David Graeber. This has an interesting slant, it looks more at social conventions and how humans interacted, and it has much more information on civilizations in North and South America than most treatments. It is long and information dense, and only someone either smart or persistent will get through it, but it is worth the effort.
> >
> > The absolute classic on the flow of resources is of course Making the Modern World, Materials and Dematerialization, by Vaclav Smil.
> >
> > The carrying capacity of the world is 1.8 billion at the quality of life of the US, or 40 billion at that of Bangladesh. So population is not the limiting factor.
> >
> I'm not so sure about extrapolations from present
> experience, be they Malthus or Al Gore.
>
> Humans are most noted for endless curiosity, innovation and
> adaptation. 'Carrying capacity' assumes static technology[1]
> and social structure[2] which may well not be the case.
>
> [1] No one saw the 'green revolution' coming except Norman
> Borlaug. Predictions of famine have proved inaccurate:
>
> https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-production-of-cereal-and-grain-legumes-over-the-past-50-years-a-b-Total-world_fig1_305788911
>
> [2]Economists such as DeSoto indicate that overall
> productivity, not only agricultural, would rise
> exponentially in South America with clear land titles and
> modern banking. One of many possible advances we may or may
> not see.
>
> --
> Andrew Muzi
> <www.yellowjersey.org/>
> Open every day since 1 April, 1971
>
This is more fundamentally existential than harvesting and distribution, Andrew. This is about the low-low fertility rates. We commonly say -- not on here but economists -- that China is in a race between growing rich and growing old. But they really aren't any more. They've lost the race.
>
The numbers Slow Johnny published above are very misleading. If I thought he had any brains, I'd suspect that he deliberately chose misleading numbers because he lies so shamelessly in his efforts to embarrass Tom, but he has too long a history of every time getting half the story.
>
Chinese demographics aren't as refined as those in the West but they're more than good enough to put some impetus behind those demographers who try to put a date on when every Chinese worker (the majority of whom are still pitifully poor, basically peasants) will be supporting three non-producing old people.
>
A number to keep a close watch on is 2.3 children worldwide per woman to permit leeway for higher mortality in backward societies. That 1.3 fertility rate often quoted relates only to the most advanced societies and is often carelessly used as a security blanket by careless speakers and deliberate liars (politicians, street corner bullies trying to embarrass someone, hysterics).
>
Many European nations are no better off. Falling off the Catholic perch has been absolutely devastating for the populations of European nations that within living memory bred young people for emigration. When I came to live in Ireland forty years ago, the average family still had 3.8 children. Today the Irish aren't replacing themselves or are heading for it fast.
>
The United States is actually still a small bit better off, or at least there is hope if it stops aborting its future.
>
People who still talk and behave as if there is a danger of surplus people, and using that to justify dire policies like the environmental nonsense Biden's administration has enforced on the entire world, are fools. People never were a danger to Gaia, and now won't be. People have passed peak danger, and it was a damp squib. Good luck with telling that to the mindless hysterics, who let themselves be bullied by a Swedish teenage scold and a York barmaid, not even a barista.
>
And, of course, as you say, human ingenuity will play its part, even as the human population declines later the century or early next century. when people who read turn of the twentieth century history will be confused by the stupidity of the era's people, and baffled by the urgency of their hysterics.
>
Andre Jute
I'll be all right, Jack. -- Gaia.
>

Tom Kunich

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Oct 14, 2022, 1:44:25 PM10/14/22
to
We see this all the time. They are as literate as Slocumb who tells us that who tells us that before there were autos in any large numbers, they needed bike lanes in the modern sense of the phrase. The dementia among 6these people like a certain liar that "raced bikes" in an around Ingleside CA. where there are no races and recounts his bikes of which none would be considered race worthy even in Cat 5. Tell us Franky-boy where exactly was it that you raced?

Of what importance was it for Flunky to tell us that he had raced? He simply had to impress everyone that he was a competent cyclist when from the bikes he described his competency was never in question, merely his judgement. The 10 speed Di2 was neither reliable nor easily repaired should so much as a wire be broken. Shimano doesn't even carry those wires in their oldest stock in warehouses. It was a ONE year attempt to research the market acceptance.

Andre Jute

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Oct 14, 2022, 1:54:02 PM10/14/22
to
On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 8:25:53 PM UTC+1, Mike A Schwab wrote:
>
> Unlimited food and comfortable living with little effort (Utopia) leads to collapse. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-mouse-utopias-1960s-led-grim-predictions-humans-180954423/
>
One of the hundred most significant books in the world is Jacques Barzun's From Dawn to Decadence, a book of such widespread content and impact, and so beautifully written that it is easy to read it for the pleasure of the scholarship and miss the message altogether: that the West has been in decline since the Renaissance. I agree with him: the declining centuries of a great empire can make for the most comfortable environments to live in. Certainly either the Chinese Empire that may follow, probably briefly, or the resurgent Islamic Empire that is probably more likely to follow, will not be comfortable at all. -- Andre Jut
>

Andre Jute

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Oct 14, 2022, 1:56:51 PM10/14/22
to
On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 8:44:54 PM UTC+1, Radey Shouman wrote:
>
> After we have consumed the core of the planet? Iron is not likely to be
> in shortage any time soon. As for making gold, substitution and
> creation of new materials is a certainty, as long as there is a supply
> of sufficiently cheap energy, the master resource. Without it, we're
> right back to sticks and stones.
>
Whatever makes you think, Radey, that living animal dung isn't what the environmentalists want to drive as back to? -- AJ
>

Andre Jute

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Oct 14, 2022, 2:06:53 PM10/14/22
to
On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 10:40:10 PM UTC+1, cycl...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> Exactly how do you propose to run out of iron when it is infinitely recyclable and 5% of the crust is iron and 80% of the core is iron?
>
Exactly. It is true that steel is an important construction material, and goes into reinforced concrete which is even more important, but the key input in steel is electricity for the smelter and, to a lesser extent, the rolling mill. -- AJ
>

Tom Kunich

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Oct 14, 2022, 2:09:14 PM10/14/22
to
On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 6:57:29 PM UTC-7, Radey Shouman wrote:
You cannot "make" gold in the slightest quantity. Also there are so many industrial uses for it that it you doubled the present supply, the cost would not come down one cent.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 14, 2022, 2:21:03 PM10/14/22
to
The only person of the stupid six with enough education to know SOMETHING about materials science is Krygowski and he NEVER bothered himself with silly things like education. He simply prefers to use a document issued by a college as proof that he is smart. We have the same problem with Liebermann who claims a degree in electrical engineering and NEVER held a single job in Silicon Valley, a bare 15 miles from his home, and the hottest market for EE's in the world. So he also pretends to be educated when the facts show otherwise.

Now Silicon Valley is dead and gone. All of the major companies and all of the start ups have gone to far more business friendly locations FAR from California. I am made offers every single day to move to virtually every Red state in the country to share my abilities and knowledge with them. Perhaps that cock-sucking non-bike riding Krygowski should tell me how to live my life? To move and make a lot of money when I HAVE a lot of money. Joe Biden has destroyed Krygowski's retirement and Krygowski is just too stupid to do the math. Maybe he should ask Seaton to do the math for him. After all - out of the closet Seaton has shown such great ability at simple arithmetic.

Mike A Schwab

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 2:29:42 PM10/14/22
to
On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 4:52:31 PM UTC-5, cycl...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 12:25:53 PM UTC-7, Mike A Schwab wrote:
> > On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 7:51:10 AM UTC-5, timoth...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > On Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 3:03:33 PM UTC-4, cycl...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > > Why did civilizations come and go?
> > > >
> > > > It turns out that comfort ends civilizations. When you have everything you don't have the time for those pesky children.
> > > >
> > > Tommy, I know it's unfair, but they hide the secrets...............................in books.
> > >
> > > Let me recommend a couple.
> > >
> > > Collapse, by Jared Diamond. It's a little dated, but it is an indepth look at five historic civilizations that collapsed, and the factors that went into that.
> > >
> > > Secondly, there's The Dawn of Everything, A New History of Humanity, by David Graeber. This has an interesting slant, it looks more at social conventions and how humans interacted, and it has much more information on civilizations in North and South America than most treatments. It is long and information dense, and only someone either smart or persistent will get through it, but it is worth the effort.
> > >
> > > The absolute classic on the flow of resources is of course Making the Modern World, Materials and Dematerialization, by Vaclav Smil.
> > >
> > > The carrying capacity of the world is 1.8 billion at the quality of life of the US, or 40 billion at that of Bangladesh. So population is not the limiting factor.
> > Many of the limits are discussed in Limits To Growth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
> > One critical material is copper for electrical wires, we spend tremendous amounts of money to mine low concentrations of ore.
> >
> > Unlimited food and comfortable living with little effort (Utopia) leads to collapse. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-mouse-utopias-1960s-led-grim-predictions-humans-180954423/
> There was a very strong reason that people used to have large families as late as the 1920's. Then medical advances allowed families to be smaller with no changes in the ratios of young to old. Think about it - the stupid six are the end of their line. They will be unable to pass their wokeness off onto others. I'm sure that Frank tried his best to brainwash his students but people tend to consider themselves first so it is doubtful anyone gave him the slightest thought.

Used to be 43% of children died by age 18. Now down to under 1% in U.S.
https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality#child-mortality-around-the-world-since-1800

AMuzi

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Oct 14, 2022, 2:52:40 PM10/14/22
to
That cannot be true.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 14, 2022, 3:50:15 PM10/14/22
to
Andrew, I'm not sure what you're getting at. Gold is made artificially from radiated mercury. Firstly mercury is deadly toxic, secondly radiated mercury leaves radioactive mercury and radioactive gold that has to be removed from this stupid experiment. The actual amount of pure gold remaining is nearly unmeasurable. The expense to make it would be more than 100 times what the resulting gold would be worth. But as I said, there are massive amounts of industrial uses for gold 197 Au which is an extremely stable element the rest of the isotopes are not. Doubling the amount of gold would simply make it available for use. It would not make it any cheaper.

John B.

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Oct 14, 2022, 6:45:39 PM10/14/22
to
There is a theory that oil is still being created although I don't
know whether the theory accounts for sufficient creation rates to
equal current use rates (:-)
--
Cheers,

John B.

John B.

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Oct 14, 2022, 6:51:48 PM10/14/22
to
Wrong again Tommy, 78% of all gold produced is used for jewelry.
--
Cheers,

John B.

Catrike Rider

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Oct 14, 2022, 6:57:09 PM10/14/22
to
On Sat, 15 Oct 2022 05:45:29 +0700, John B. <sloc...@gmail.com>
wrote:
Doesn't matter. Just like mankind learned to make tall steel and
concrete buildings when bricks wouldn't work, free markets, not
government bureaucrats, will figure out how to deal with no fossil
fuels, when it actually happens.

John B.

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Oct 14, 2022, 7:09:15 PM10/14/22
to
And in the U.S. more then 600,000, roughly 2% of the population died,
in the so called Civil War. As a percent of population, perhaps more
then died in the Chinese great leap forward.
https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/civil-war-casualties

--
Cheers,

John B.

John B.

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Oct 14, 2022, 7:12:53 PM10/14/22
to
Roughly 80% of the gold produced currently is used for jewelry (:-)
https://www.mecmining.com.au/top-5-uses-of-gold-one-of-the-worlds-most-coveted-metals/
--
Cheers,

John B.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 14, 2022, 7:17:31 PM10/14/22
to
Tim, I didn't see this when you published it. How do you use oil or natural gas to make ANYTHING without using energy supplied by that very same oil or natural gas? I really find myself often confused by the things that people who know nothing about science say. Even oil and natural gas must be used to extract oil and natural gas from its sources. Fracking isn't anything unnatural and it was initially discovered occurring along natural fault lines.

Is oil and gas being presently generated? Yes but only in extremely limited areas such as heavy rainforest which duplicates the conditions of the Cretaceous Era. But these areas are rapidly becoming destroyed often by what are essentially criminal enterprises for the value of their wood and other combustible material. This means that there will simply be insufficient material laid down under these rain forests to wait the hundreds of thousands of years to degrade into oil or gas. So you can forget that as a future source of energy.

AMuzi

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Oct 14, 2022, 7:27:59 PM10/14/22
to
Yes, freedom creates prosperity but a more likely outcome is
a nation full of shared-time electric Trabants powered by
coal plants which will be called 'transitional electric
sources'.

AMuzi

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Oct 14, 2022, 7:31:58 PM10/14/22
to
I'm not an expert but the generally accepted theory is that
the Cretaceous was the 'magic moment' with high volumes of
dead plant material being constantly compressed and before
the appearance of bacteria which eat lignin.

You'd be hard pressed to find any forested area free of
bacteria now. In fact I'd bet that.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 14, 2022, 7:54:45 PM10/14/22
to
I'm not sure where Trabant comes from since the second that East Germany fell they started having severe financial problems and went out of business around 1990 or so.

Today a Morris Mini is $30,000. I am getting very tired of hearing about the efficiency of electric cars. They aren't, the loses of energy in the mere generation of it is about 35%. Transmission loses through step up and step down transformer loses and transmission line loses is another 15-18% or so. So for every lb of coal burned you get half a lb of electric energy at the recharger. Then the EV motors have a loss of about 15%. All of this gives the VERY best EV an efficiency of about the same as a gasoline powered vehicle and a little worse than a diesel powered vehicle.

If you operate EV's at high speed the losses multiply rapidly and that is why the slightest increase in load of the EV very rapidly reduces the range. There was just an article of a Chevy Pickup with a supposed range of 500 miles I believe took off with an empty trailer on the back in order to tow back another car. The truck rapidly turned back when the on-board computer showed that with just the empty trailer that milage had dropped to 250 miles.

Under very specific conditions EV's might be a good idea, But they do NOT reduce CO2 emissions and they must be operated only within a very stringent set of rules. So it was a very good idea for Gavin Loathsome to command EV's as the only salable vehicles in California after 2024. Asses always feel the need to act like asses. Like the Stupid Six.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 14, 2022, 7:57:49 PM10/14/22
to
Rain forests can generate and bury away from bacteria that require oxygen that degrade the wood faster than it can be broken down. The idea that there weren't bacteria that fed upon wood in the Cretaceous period is highly suspect.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 14, 2022, 8:30:35 PM10/14/22
to
On 10/14/2022 9:20 AM, AMuzi wrote:
> On 10/14/2022 1:23 AM, John B. wrote:
>>
>>
>> Re Fracking. It is very much a matter of what comes first, the chicken
>> or the egg. Fracking is, in comparison to conventional drilling, a
>> very expensive method thus if gas and oil prices aren't high it isn't
>> economical but, of course, increases supplies if priced increase to
>> the point that it becomes financially practical (:-)
>>
>> Conventional drilling can be financially viable for costs as little as
>> $10/bbl in Saudi and perhaps $30/bbl in the U.S., while the U.S. Shale
>> oil fracking, break even, level is in the range of as cheap as $30 to
>> as much as $60/bbl.

Thanks for that summary. Way back in the 1990s or so, an associate of
mine was saying "There's plenty of natural gas right under our feet! The
government won't let us get it!"

Well, not exactly. He was talking about shale gas, and the technology to
extract it was, at that time, too expensive to extract the gas at a
profit. Later horizontal drilling allowed much more use of hydraulic
fracturing, and economies of scale helped lower costs. But still, I have
a friend with one of those wells on his property. It's producing
nothing, last I heard, because the economics aren't right at this time.
Prices have to be higher.

>>
>>
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/051215/cost-shale-oil-versus-conventional-oil.asp
>>
>
> Also directed 'horizontal' drilling which, along with fracturing and
> other technical improvements belied the "world will run out of oil in
> ten years" scam.

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future."

There may have been some people that literally believed all oil would be
used up at a single moment in the near future. Anybody who thought much
about it must have known that was hyperbole.

Back in the 1970s I attended a lecture where the speaker used a bowl of
spaghetti as an analogy. He said at first it's easy to get huge forks
full of spaghetti, but as the bowl gets emptier and emptier, you have to
scrape more and more to get a mouthful. He said it will be the same with
oil. It won't suddenly dry up. It will just get more and more costly to
extract.

> Resources are not 'static' if you include human innovation into the
> calculation.

I'm sure in the 1500s or so, someone in Britain said "We'll never run
out of tin!" And I suppose there's still some in the ground. Not that it
helps.

BTW, a guy on a club bike ride lectured me that we could be getting all
the energy we needed _right now_ from solar panels in geosynchronous
orbit, sending the energy down using fixed cables. According to him, all
that was stopping us was the environmentalists.

I didn't really want to start a debate. But I did ask him about his
scientific qualifications. He said "I'm a conservative Republican from
southwest Ohio. That's my qualifications."

--
- Frank Krygowski

John B.

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Oct 14, 2022, 8:31:58 PM10/14/22
to
Perhaps, but deep water drilling as well as shale oil drilling is a
very expensive project.

Rig rental alone for off shore drilling is about 6 to 8 times more
expensive then on shore. $600,000-$800.000 per day versus $100,000 per
day.

So, while the oil is there the exploration and production costs are
going up and up and up.

Note that these are only the cost of drilling and do not include the
geological studies, land lease and licensing costs, cost of necessary
pipelines, and all the other "incidentals" required.
--
Cheers,

John B.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 14, 2022, 8:35:53 PM10/14/22
to
On 10/14/2022 9:38 AM, Tim R wrote:
> On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 5:55:22 PM UTC-4, jeff.li...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>> A more likely candidate for synthesis are the various hydrocarbon
>> compounds. We're already converting different forms of hydrocarbons
>> into more desirable hydrocarbons for fuels and lubricants. It can
>> also be done to make food, which is full of hydrocarbon compounds.
>>
>> Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
>> PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
>> Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
>> Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
>
> Dinosaur juice (and I guess we should include coal, though a bit more expensive to use than oil) is the base chemical stock for just about every other chemical product.
>
> And we're stupid enough to burn it.

I remember once being told, by an intelligent person "It's like burning
a Gutenberg Bible to heat a cup of coffee."

Heat is the lowest form of energy. There are countless ways to produce
it. Destroying complex and useful molecules isn't the best way.

>
> It is a finite resource, as there is no practical way to recycle it once burned, and no cheap way when used for more valuable products. Granted we keep getting better at extracting it, but the harder this is the more expensive. One of the major impacts on the Roman Empire was the increasing cost of wood as they'd burned everything close to them.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Tom Kunich

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Oct 14, 2022, 8:48:43 PM10/14/22
to
I suppose that what people without brains have to face is that everything comes with a cost. The very fact that people can live in places like Arizona and New Mexico or Utah is because we have energy to heat and cool the homes to levels that leave minds capable of other more important thoughts.

Where that ass Krygowski lives is in Poland, OH. That area has very mild winters but I bet he couldn't go one single month without heating without more whining than from Slocumb missing a month's retirement check from the Air Force.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 14, 2022, 8:49:20 PM10/14/22
to
On 10/14/2022 7:54 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> I am getting very tired of hearing about the efficiency of electric cars. They aren't, the loses of energy in the mere generation of it is about 35%. Transmission loses through step up and step down transformer loses and transmission line loses is another 15-18% or so. So for every lb of coal burned you get half a lb of electric energy at the recharger. Then the EV motors have a loss of about 15%. All of this gives the VERY best EV an efficiency of about the same as a gasoline powered vehicle and a little worse than a diesel powered vehicle....
>
> Under very specific conditions EV's might be a good idea, But they do NOT reduce CO2 emissions and they must be operated only within a very stringent set of rules.

I don't suppose Tom would be willing to give citations and sources to
prove all those amazing "facts." Sources, please, that aren't talking
heads on Faux News or from fringe right-wing websites.

Meanwhile, here's some easy reading. This is from that notoriously
hippie environmentalist rag Motor Trend. You know, the one that
glorifies muscle cars and horsepower:

https://www.motortrend.com/news/evs-more-efficient-than-internal-combustion-engines/

and for a little corroboration from the other side of the aisle:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/10/electric-car-myth-buster-efficiency/

--
- Frank Krygowski

Tim R

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Oct 14, 2022, 8:49:57 PM10/14/22
to
On Friday, October 14, 2022 at 1:43:34 PM UTC-4, Andre Jute wrote:
> This is more fundamentally existential than harvesting and distribution, Andrew. This is about the low-low fertility rates. We commonly say -- not on here but economists -- that China is in a race between growing rich and growing old. But they really aren't any more. They've lost the race.
> >
> Chinese demographics aren't as refined as those in the West but they're more than good enough to put some impetus behind those demographers who try to put a date on when every Chinese worker (the majority of whom are still pitifully poor, basically peasants) will be supporting three non-producing old people.
> >
> >
> Andre Jute
> I'll be all right, Jack. -- Gaia.
> >

I attended a lecture by a futurist working on predictions for the auto industry. She had a lot of doom and gloom about resources, including some I hadn't thought about, but also said something I hadn't considered.

She said the first person to live to 150 has probably already been born. But, there is nobody who can expect to earn enough in his first 50 years to survive the next 100.

The problem with what Andrew points out is that it basically requires continuous growth of the population of the young, to support the old. That clearly is not sustainable indefinitely. As he points out, one poor peasant can't support three old people, probably it's the other way around. It takes 3 people to support one non producer.

And then 9 people to support them. And so on. This is survival based on the assumption of infinitely sustainable growth.

The same is true of economics. Currently the world systems are based on growth. Very little thought has been given to a steady state world. (Except by McKibben in his book Eaarth. But he is much further left than anyone here, so even his good ideas get rejected.)

Productive forest can support about one deer per 8 acres, but an 80 acre plot will never have 10 deer steady state. It will continuously bounce between 2 and 150.

John B.

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 9:00:06 PM10/14/22
to
Back some years ago I got quite interested "in making your own
electricity" - solar panels and wind vanes, etc. and visited quite a
few sites that were lovingly describing that "See, we live out in the
country and depend on Solar and wind generation... don't even have an
electrical line coming to the house". And every one of their posts
mentioned that they had a diesel generator "out the back"... for
emergencies. (:-)
--
Cheers,

John B.

AMuzi

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 9:00:46 PM10/14/22
to
+1 Good story; Idiots come in all flavors.

Side notes: Cost of production in The Kingdom is indeed low
but customers aren't nearby so there are transit costs to
add in for 'delivered price'. On that note, OH and PA have
plenty of natural gas but can't get it to New England
customers because NY has a pipeline ban (in addition to a
production ban on their side of the Marcellus). You may
well ask why NY would do such. Easy! Major campaign
contributor to the previous governor said so:

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2015/07/yoko-ono-calls-on-cuomo-to-reject-pipeline-023664

In the practical world there are all sorts of countervailing
factors to everything.

AMuzi

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 9:06:45 PM10/14/22
to
You are correct. And yet firms manage to do it, profitably.

To the larger point, US firms produce oil and gas ever more
efficiently from the Gulf of Mexico while the joint venture
between the union and the Mexican regime, PEMEX, suffers
huge expenses, continuing travesties and low production, in
some cases from the other side of the same fields.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/safety/fire-hits-another-pemex-production-platform-according-to-mexican-reports/2-1-1167710?zephr_sso_ott=GyyePE

AMuzi

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 9:10:38 PM10/14/22
to
Yes that's right.

Still and all, oil and gas are a heck of a lot better than
slavery, draft animals and horses**t in the streets.

https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/

But for the political impediments to nuclear power, we may
well have dropped oil/gas/coal burning. But here we are.

Tom Kunich

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 9:11:12 PM10/14/22
to
Not quite, the average age of death is 74 years old, So you only need a WORKING population below about 56 years old to maintain a steady state. If you don't want to work, fine, but don't ask me to support you.

Tom Kunich

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:17:28 PM10/14/22
to
Just remember that the stupid six believe that oil is too valuable to burn. They believe oil more valuable to produce plastics so that they can complain about that huge mid-pacific plastic island that doesn't actually exist.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:17:49 PM10/14/22
to
On 10/14/2022 2:21 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> I am made offers every single day to move to virtually every Red state in the country to share my abilities and knowledge with them.

... says the only guy on this discussion group who complains endlessly
about his living conditions! :-)

--
- Frank Krygowski

Frank Krygowski

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 9:28:15 PM10/14/22
to
I'm not disagreeing with most of that. But I will point out that Yoko
Ono was certainly not the only major campaign contributor concerned with
this issue. Those on the other side of the issue also made donations.

I live in a state where millions upon millions went into bribery efforts
and "red menace" publicity campaigns to cause public funds to be
diverted into propping up uneconomical electricity generation, and to
hamper any move to other energy sources. (And BTW, I'm generally in
favor of nuclear power.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_nuclear_bribery_scandal

and more thoroughly

https://grist.org/politics/how-a-60-million-bribery-scandal-helped-ohio-pass-the-worst-energy-policy-in-the-country/

--
- Frank Krygowski

John B.

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:34:54 PM10/14/22
to
Or perhaps electricity generated by the tides? I believe that this is
successfully done in a number of places.
--
Cheers,

John B.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:35:17 PM10/14/22
to
On 10/14/2022 8:59 PM, John B. wrote:
>
> Back some years ago I got quite interested "in making your own
> electricity" - solar panels and wind vanes, etc. and visited quite a
> few sites that were lovingly describing that "See, we live out in the
> country and depend on Solar and wind generation... don't even have an
> electrical line coming to the house". And every one of their posts
> mentioned that they had a diesel generator "out the back"... for
> emergencies. (:-)

I don't know that's a serious indictment. I've bicycled hundreds and
hundreds of miles in Amish areas. It's part of their religion to be
disconnected from most of society. They don't have electric utility
lines running to their homes. But on some of their roads, it's rare to
see a home lacking a solar panel. And while it varies from community to
community, some do occasionally use gasoline or diesel fueled machinery.

If using a generator for 10% of their power allowed the use of solar or
wind for the other 90%, it would still be environmentally beneficial. I
think that some day soon it will even be economically beneficial.

--
- Frank Krygowski

John B.

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:38:03 PM10/14/22
to
"My abilities and knowledge"??
This is the guy that had problems installing the seat post in a
bicycle frame?
--
Cheers,

John B.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:38:18 PM10/14/22
to
Tom, you "discuss" things using the intellectual sophistication of a
middle school playground punk.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Frank Krygowski

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 9:44:26 PM10/14/22
to
<sigh> As usual, Tom wasn't able to understand what he was trying to
respond to.

But regarding "don't ask me to support you": Congratulations, Tom! I
hear your Social Security check is going to increase.

--
- Frank Krygowski

Jeff Liebermann

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Oct 14, 2022, 9:58:30 PM10/14/22
to
On Fri, 14 Oct 2022 12:50:13 -0700 (PDT), Tom Kunich
<cycl...@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Friday, October 14, 2022 at 11:52:40 AM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
>> On 10/14/2022 1:09 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
>> > On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 6:57:29 PM UTC-7, Radey Shouman wrote:
>> >> Jeff Liebermann <je...@cruzio.com> writes:
>> >>
>> >>> On Thu, 13 Oct 2022 15:44:51 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> >>> <sho...@comcast.net> wrote:
>> >>>
>> >>>> As for making gold, substitution and
>> >>>> creation of new materials is a certainty, as long as there is a supply
>> >>>> of sufficiently cheap energy, the master resource. Without it, we're
>> >>>> right back to sticks and stones.
>> >>>
>> >>> Making cheap artificial gold is self-defeating. Gold gets its value
>> >>> from its scarcity. Were we to contrive a way of making cheap gold,
>> >>> such as asteroid mining, the price of gold would fall making it less
>> >>> profitable to synthesize.
>> >> Were gold cheap any number of uses could be found for it. Even now
>> >> there are practical applications.
>> >>> A more likely candidate for synthesis are the various hydrocarbon
>> >>> compounds. We're already converting different forms of hydrocarbons
>> >>> into more desirable hydrocarbons for fuels and lubricants. It can
>> >>> also be done to make food, which is full of hydrocarbon compounds.
>> >>>
>> >>> "Food from Coal-derived Materials by Microbial Synthesis"
>> >>> <https://www.nature.com/articles/211735b0> (Aug 13, 1966)
>> >>> "Recently, it has been found that micro-organisms convert petroleum or
>> >>> petroleum fractions to protein, vitamins, or amino-acids"
>> >>>
>> >>> "Can Food Be Made From Coal?"
>> >>> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/food/1984/05/27/can-food-be-made-from-coal/d80567ac-c656-4e0b-9f54-d505bd6d261a/>
>> >
>> > You cannot "make" gold in the slightest quantity. Also there are so many industrial uses for it that it you doubled the present supply, the cost would not come down one cent.
>> >
>> That cannot be true.

>Andrew, I'm not sure what you're getting at. Gold is made artificially from radiated mercury. Firstly mercury is deadly toxic, secondly radiated mercury leaves radioactive mercury and radioactive gold that has to be removed from this stupid experiment. The actual amount of pure gold remaining is nearly unmeasurable. The expense to make it would be more than 100 times what the resulting gold would be worth. But as I said, there are massive amounts of industrial uses for gold 197 Au which is an extremely stable element the rest of the isotopes are not. Doubling the amount of gold would simply make it available for use. It would not make it any cheaper.

That should be 97 Au, not 197.

"In 1980, chemist Glenn Seaborg solved a centuries-old problem in
alchemy and turned a non-precious metal into gold"
<https://www.thevintagenews.com/2017/12/22/glenn-seaborg/?firefox=1&Exc_D_LessThanPoint002_p1=1>
This article and others do not mention if the resultant gold was
radioactive, possibly because of the small quantity (several thousand
atoms) of gold produced did not make detection of unstable isotopes
easy. His process of converting bismuth(83Bi) to gold(79Au), was far
too expensive to be considered useful. However, many other
technologies, such as DNA sequencing, were horribly expensive when
first introduced, but eventually became affordable.

You're correct that making synthesized gold, in the quantities
mentioned, available for commercial use, would not have an effect on
the price. However, mining small asteroids, which would produce about
100 lbs of gold each, might have different results.

"Asteroid mining"
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining>
"A small 10-meter S-type asteroid contains about 650,000 kg (1,433,000
lb) of metal with 50 kg (110 lb) in the form of rare metals like
platinum and gold."

"Asteroids contain metals worth quintillions of dollars but mining
them won’t necessarily make your richer than Bezos or Musk"
<https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/asteroids-contain-metals-worth-quintillions-of-dollars-but-mining-them-wont-necessarily-make-your-richer-than-bezos-or-musk/articleshow/83989878.cms>
"Just because asteroid mining will make more gold available, it
doesn’t mean that demand will rise to the occasion."



--

John B.

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 9:59:38 PM10/14/22
to
Well (:-) PEMEX is a rather sad story. From the outside looking in it
appears that their safety regulations and policies are a bit lacking
in either quality, quantity, or enforcement.

But Profitability is relative to both cost AND sales price. there was
a period in the very early days in the Pennsylvania oil fields when a
barrel of water at the drilling site was more valuable then a barrel
of oil (:-)
--
Cheers,

John B.

John B.

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 10:15:28 PM10/14/22
to
I think that the Yoko thing is more an argument against fracking then
simply natural gas (although I could be wrong (:-) and fracking does
have problems, in fact I believe it is totally banned in several
countries, as it has, or is believed to have, caused earthquakes or
trimmers sufficiently great enough to damage property. And more
recently blamed for birth defects (:-)

--
Cheers,

John B.

Radey Shouman

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 10:44:13 PM10/14/22
to
Peat, which is immature coal, is almost certainly still being created.
But I can't imagine that the rate of creation of fossil fuels is
anywhere near the rate of use. Which means that, sooner or later, we
will run out. Obviously, predicting exactly when is a mug's game.

John B.

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 10:48:30 PM10/14/22
to
Yes, they keep discovering new oil fields (:-)
--
Cheers,

John B.

Jeff Liebermann

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Oct 14, 2022, 10:56:22 PM10/14/22
to
On Fri, 14 Oct 2022 21:44:24 -0400, Frank Krygowski
<frkr...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:

>But regarding "don't ask me to support you": Congratulations, Tom! I
>hear your Social Security check is going to increase.

8.7% COLA (cost of living adjustment):
<https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/your-money/social-security-cola-inflation.html>

That's about the same as the official annual inflation rate:
<https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi>

--

Radey Shouman

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Oct 14, 2022, 10:56:37 PM10/14/22
to
See https://www.withouthotair.com/c14/page_81.shtml for an estimate of
how much energy could be extracted from tides in the British isles. It
is not inconsiderable, but less than what is currently used. Most
countries are not as fortunate in potential tide resources.
--

Radey Shouman

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 11:01:54 PM10/14/22
to
Every idiot in New England seems to be anti-pipeline. Up until recently
most of the gas burned here was LNG from Russia, which was, even
according to the Boston Globe, ridiculous.

https://www.eeia.org/aboutus/about-one.cfm?Getone=yes&category=Current&ID=524

The current situation is different, but no less ridiculous. I'm not
looking forward to this winter's gas bills.

--

Mike A Schwab

unread,
Oct 14, 2022, 11:30:23 PM10/14/22
to
On Friday, October 14, 2022 at 5:45:39 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
> On Fri, 14 Oct 2022 06:38:39 -0700 (PDT), Tim R
> <timoth...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 5:55:22 PM UTC-4, jeff.li...@gmail.com wrote:
> >>
> >> A more likely candidate for synthesis are the various hydrocarbon
> >> compounds. We're already converting different forms of hydrocarbons
> >> into more desirable hydrocarbons for fuels and lubricants. It can
> >> also be done to make food, which is full of hydrocarbon compounds.
> >>
> >> Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
> >> PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
> >> Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
> >> Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
> >
> >Dinosaur juice (and I guess we should include coal, though
> a bit more expensive to use than oil) is the base chemical stock for
> just about every other chemical product.
> >
> >And we're stupid enough to burn it.
> >
> >It is a finite resource, as there is no practical way to recycle it once burned, and no cheap way when used for more valuable products. Granted we keep getting better at extracting it, but the harder this is the more expensive. One of the major impacts on the Roman Empire was the increasing cost of wood as they'd burned everything close to them.
> There is a theory that oil is still being created although I don't
> know whether the theory accounts for sufficient creation rates to
> equal current use rates (:-)
> --
> Cheers,
>
> John B.

Bio-Diesel aka vegetable oil. Available at end of growing season.

John B.

unread,
Oct 15, 2022, 1:40:37 AM10/15/22
to
Well, yes, for internal combustion engines, but will it work for
everything that petroleum oil, and gas, can be used for?

I believe that some 6,000 products are made from petroleum alone.
https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made-from-petroleum/
--
Cheers,

John B.

Catrike Rider

unread,
Oct 15, 2022, 4:56:48 AM10/15/22
to
On Fri, 14 Oct 2022 18:27:53 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:

>On 10/14/2022 5:57 PM, Catrike Rider wrote:
>> On Sat, 15 Oct 2022 05:45:29 +0700, John B. <sloc...@gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On Fri, 14 Oct 2022 06:38:39 -0700 (PDT), Tim R
>>> <timoth...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 5:55:22 PM UTC-4, jeff.li...@gmail.com wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> A more likely candidate for synthesis are the various hydrocarbon
>>>>> compounds. We're already converting different forms of hydrocarbons
>>>>> into more desirable hydrocarbons for fuels and lubricants. It can
>>>>> also be done to make food, which is full of hydrocarbon compounds.
>>>>>
>>>>> Jeff Liebermann je...@cruzio.com
>>>>> PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
>>>>> Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
>>>>> Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
>>>>
>>>> Dinosaur juice (and I guess we should include coal, though
>>> a bit more expensive to use than oil) is the base chemical stock for
>>> just about every other chemical product.
>>>>
>>>> And we're stupid enough to burn it.
>>>>
>>>> It is a finite resource, as there is no practical way to recycle it once burned, and no cheap way when used for more valuable products. Granted we keep getting better at extracting it, but the harder this is the more expensive. One of the major impacts on the Roman Empire was the increasing cost of wood as they'd burned everything close to them.
>>>
>>> There is a theory that oil is still being created although I don't
>>> know whether the theory accounts for sufficient creation rates to
>>> equal current use rates (:-)
>>
>> Doesn't matter. Just like mankind learned to make tall steel and
>> concrete buildings when bricks wouldn't work, free markets, not
>> government bureaucrats, will figure out how to deal with no fossil
>> fuels, when it actually happens.
>>
>
>Yes, freedom creates prosperity but a more likely outcome is
>a nation full of shared-time electric Trabants powered by
>coal plants which will be called 'transitional electric
>sources'.
I have more faith in mankind, Somewhere among the freaks, loonies,
and rioters that make all the news, are the quiet geniuses that will
figure out fusion, space mining, and maybe even how to end senseless
wars.

Catrike Rider

unread,
Oct 15, 2022, 5:31:38 AM10/15/22
to
Nuclear would still be an economical and reliable energy source had
the environmentalist freaks not legislated against it.

AMuzi

unread,
Oct 15, 2022, 8:31:36 AM10/15/22
to
On 10/14/2022 8:28 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
> On 10/14/2022 9:00 PM, AMuzi wrote:
>> On 10/14/2022 7:30 PM, Frank Krygowski wrote:
>>> On 10/14/2022 9:20 AM, AMuzi wrote:
>>> Â > On 10/14/2022 1:23 AM, John B. wrote:
>>> Â >>
>>> Â >>
>>> Â >> Re Fracking. It is very much a matter of what comes
>>> first, the chicken
>>> Â >> or the egg. Fracking is, in comparison to conventional
>>> drilling, a
>>> Â >> very expensive method thus if gas and oil prices aren't
>>> high it isn't
>>> Â >> economical but, of course, increases supplies if priced
>>> increase to
>>> Â >> the point that it becomes financially practical (:-)
>>> Â >>
>>> Â >> Conventional drilling can be financially viable for
>>> costs as little as
>>> Â >> $10/bbl in Saudi and perhaps $30/bbl in the U.S., while
>>> the U.S. Shale
>>> Â >> oil fracking, break even, level is in the range of as
>>> cheap as $30 to
>>> Â >> as much as $60/bbl.
>>>
>>> Thanks for that summary. Way back in the 1990s or so, an
>>> associate of mine was saying "There's plenty of natural gas
>>> right under our feet! The government won't let us get it!"
>>>
>>> Well, not exactly. He was talking about shale gas, and the
>>> technology to extract it was, at that time, too expensive to
>>> extract the gas at a profit. Later horizontal drilling
>>> allowed much more use of hydraulic fracturing, and economies
>>> of scale helped lower costs. But still, I have a friend with
>>> one of those wells on his property. It's producing nothing,
>>> last I heard, because the economics aren't right at this
>>> time. Prices have to be higher.
>>>
>>> Â >>
>>> Â >>
>>> https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/051215/cost-shale-oil-versus-conventional-oil.asp
>>>
>>>
>>> Â >>
>>> Â >
>>> Â > Also directed 'horizontal' drilling which, along with
>>> fracturing and
>>> Â > other technical improvements belied the "world will run
>>> out of oil in
>>> Â > ten years" scam.
>>>
>>> "Predictions are hard, especially about the future."
>>>
>>> There may have been some people that literally believed all
>>> oil would be used up at a single moment in the near future.
>>> Anybody who thought much about it must have known that was
>>> hyperbole.
>>>
>>> Back in the 1970s I attended a lecture where the speaker
>>> used a bowl of spaghetti as an analogy. He said at first
>>> it's easy to get huge forks full of spaghetti, but as the
>>> bowl gets emptier and emptier, you have to scrape more and
>>> more to get a mouthful. He said it will be the same with
>>> oil. It won't suddenly dry up. It will just get more and
>>> more costly to extract.
>>>
>>> Â > Resources are not 'static' if you include human
>>> innovation into the
>>> Â > calculation.
>>>
>>> I'm sure in the 1500s or so, someone in Britain said "We'll
>>> never run out of tin!" And I suppose there's still some in
>>> the ground. Not that it helps.
>>>
>>> BTW, a guy on a club bike ride lectured me that we could be
>>> getting all the energy we needed _right now_ from solar
>>> panels in geosynchronous orbit, sending the energy down
>>> using fixed cables. According to him, all that was stopping
>>> us was the environmentalists.
>>>
>>> I didn't really want to start a debate. But I did ask him
>>> about his scientific qualifications. He said "I'm a
>>> conservative Republican from southwest Ohio. That's my
>>> qualifications."
>>>
>>
>> +1 Good story; Idiots come in all flavors.
>>
>> Side notes:Â Cost of production in The Kingdom is indeed
>> low but customers aren't nearby so there are transit costs
>> to add in for 'delivered price'. On that note, OH and PA
>> have plenty of natural gas but can't get it to New England
>> customers because NY has a pipeline ban (in addition to a
>> production ban on their side of the Marcellus). You may
>> well ask why NY would do such. Easy! Major campaign
>> contributor to the previous governor said so:
>>
>> https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2015/07/yoko-ono-calls-on-cuomo-to-reject-pipeline-023664
>>
>>
>> In the practical world there are all sorts of
>> countervailing factors to everything.
>
> I'm not disagreeing with most of that. But I will point out
> that Yoko Ono was certainly not the only major campaign
> contributor concerned with this issue. Those on the other
> side of the issue also made donations.
>
> I live in a state where millions upon millions went into
> bribery efforts and "red menace" publicity campaigns to
> cause public funds to be diverted into propping up
> uneconomical electricity generation, and to hamper any move
> to other energy sources. (And BTW, I'm generally in favor of
> nuclear power.)
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_nuclear_bribery_scandal
>
> and more thoroughly
>
> https://grist.org/politics/how-a-60-million-bribery-scandal-helped-ohio-pass-the-worst-energy-policy-in-the-country/
>
>

Such is our fate.

That story is repeated on every policy issue every day, to
our greater loss.

AMuzi

unread,
Oct 15, 2022, 8:37:38 AM10/15/22
to
On 10/14/2022 9:56 PM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Fri, 14 Oct 2022 21:44:24 -0400, Frank Krygowski
> <frkr...@sbcglobal.net> wrote:
>
>> But regarding "don't ask me to support you": Congratulations, Tom! I
>> hear your Social Security check is going to increase.
>
> 8.7% COLA (cost of living adjustment):
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/your-money/social-security-cola-inflation.html>
>
> That's about the same as the official annual inflation rate:
> <https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi>
>

A magic windfall! 8.7% increase in a 2% economy!

https://www.allsides.com/news/2022-10-13-1504/economy-and-jobs-biden-insists-inflation-averaged-2-even-after-data-shows-82

Time to visit the Lamborghini showroom!

AMuzi

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Oct 15, 2022, 8:39:18 AM10/15/22
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Could be worse. Per Mr Krygowski's report, New England
could import some Ohioans to screw it up more!

AMuzi

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Oct 15, 2022, 8:43:43 AM10/15/22
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Our culture recycles almost everything- over a hundred years
of well developed iron/steel recycling plus other metals,
glass, paper atc.

Except nuclear fuel, by Statute, which has flipped the
economics of nuclear power upside down. Add in nuisance
lawsuits and you get utter stasis with no development
whatsoever.

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 15, 2022, 10:45:25 AM10/15/22
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On 10/14/2022 10:15 PM, John B. wrote:
>
>
> I think that the Yoko thing is more an argument against fracking then
> simply natural gas (although I could be wrong (:-) and fracking does
> have problems, in fact I believe it is totally banned in several
> countries, as it has, or is believed to have, caused earthquakes or
> trimmers sufficiently great enough to damage property.

I remember sitting in my living room here in NE Ohio a few years ago and
experiencing an earthquake - just one sudden "bump." It was blamed on
fracking - well, in a sense. It was actually caused by an injection
well, in which they pump liquid waste (mostly fracking wastewater) very
deep into the earth, far below water tables and fracking depth.
Apparently this well sort of lubricated a previously unknown fault.

So yes, an earthquake centered very close to us (perhaps 20 miles away).
IIRC, total recorded damage was a few bricks falling off one house's old
chimney, and rumors of some minor cracks in another old house's plaster.

There were later rumors of earthquakes caused by a much closer gas well,
but those were detected only by seismometers. They were too small to be
felt. I suppose if seismometers are made sensitive enough, it might be
discovered that riding a bicycle can trigger an earthquake.

BTW, in the early 1980s I experienced another earthquake while working
at my desk in my fourth floor office. I heard a low rumble and saw the
tea in my mug was sloshing back and forth. That rare (around here) event
was just Mother Nature rearranging her underwear. It had nothing to
with human activity.

Well, unless someone somewhere triggered it by riding a bike.


--
- Frank Krygowski

Frank Krygowski

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Oct 15, 2022, 11:04:22 AM10/15/22
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On 10/15/2022 5:31 AM, Catrike Rider wrote:
>
> Nuclear would still be an economical and reliable energy source had
> the environmentalist freaks not legislated against it.

Which is why every "red state" (dominated by Republicans) has at least a
dozen nuclear reactors. Right?

--
- Frank Krygowski

Catrike Rider

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Oct 15, 2022, 11:51:52 AM10/15/22
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Utter nonsense, and many of the remaining plants are due to be shut
down soon...
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