On Thursday, October 13, 2022 at 2:35:49 PM UTC+1, AMuzi wrote:
> On 10/13/2022 7:51 AM, Tim R wrote:
> > On Wednesday, October 12, 2022 at 3:03:33 PM UTC-4,
cycl...@gmail.com wrote:
> >> Why did civilizations come and go?
> >>
> >> It turns out that comfort ends civilizations. When you have everything you don't have the time for those pesky children.
> >>
> >
> > Tommy, I know it's unfair, but they hide the secrets...............................in books.
> >
> > Let me recommend a couple.
> >
> > Collapse, by Jared Diamond. It's a little dated, but it is an indepth look at five historic civilizations that collapsed, and the factors that went into that.
> >
> > Secondly, there's The Dawn of Everything, A New History of Humanity, by David Graeber. This has an interesting slant, it looks more at social conventions and how humans interacted, and it has much more information on civilizations in North and South America than most treatments. It is long and information dense, and only someone either smart or persistent will get through it, but it is worth the effort.
> >
> > The absolute classic on the flow of resources is of course Making the Modern World, Materials and Dematerialization, by Vaclav Smil.
> >
> > The carrying capacity of the world is 1.8 billion at the quality of life of the US, or 40 billion at that of Bangladesh. So population is not the limiting factor.
> >
> I'm not so sure about extrapolations from present
> experience, be they Malthus or Al Gore.
>
> Humans are most noted for endless curiosity, innovation and
> adaptation. 'Carrying capacity' assumes static technology[1]
> and social structure[2] which may well not be the case.
>
> [1] No one saw the 'green revolution' coming except Norman
> Borlaug. Predictions of famine have proved inaccurate:
>
>
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/World-production-of-cereal-and-grain-legumes-over-the-past-50-years-a-b-Total-world_fig1_305788911
>
> [2]Economists such as DeSoto indicate that overall
> productivity, not only agricultural, would rise
> exponentially in South America with clear land titles and
> modern banking. One of many possible advances we may or may
> not see.
>
This is more fundamentally existential than harvesting and distribution, Andrew. This is about the low-low fertility rates. We commonly say -- not on here but economists -- that China is in a race between growing rich and growing old. But they really aren't any more. They've lost the race.
>
The numbers Slow Johnny published above are very misleading. If I thought he had any brains, I'd suspect that he deliberately chose misleading numbers because he lies so shamelessly in his efforts to embarrass Tom, but he has too long a history of every time getting half the story.
>
Chinese demographics aren't as refined as those in the West but they're more than good enough to put some impetus behind those demographers who try to put a date on when every Chinese worker (the majority of whom are still pitifully poor, basically peasants) will be supporting three non-producing old people.
>
A number to keep a close watch on is 2.3 children worldwide per woman to permit leeway for higher mortality in backward societies. That 1.3 fertility rate often quoted relates only to the most advanced societies and is often carelessly used as a security blanket by careless speakers and deliberate liars (politicians, street corner bullies trying to embarrass someone, hysterics).
>
Many European nations are no better off. Falling off the Catholic perch has been absolutely devastating for the populations of European nations that within living memory bred young people for emigration. When I came to live in Ireland forty years ago, the average family still had 3.8 children. Today the Irish aren't replacing themselves or are heading for it fast.
>
The United States is actually still a small bit better off, or at least there is hope if it stops aborting its future.
>
People who still talk and behave as if there is a danger of surplus people, and using that to justify dire policies like the environmental nonsense Biden's administration has enforced on the entire world, are fools. People never were a danger to Gaia, and now won't be. People have passed peak danger, and it was a damp squib. Good luck with telling that to the mindless hysterics, who let themselves be bullied by a Swedish teenage scold and a York barmaid, not even a barista.
>
And, of course, as you say, human ingenuity will play its part, even as the human population declines later the century or early next century. when people who read turn of the twentieth century history will be confused by the stupidity of the era's people, and baffled by the urgency of their hysterics.
>
Andre Jute
I'll be all right, Jack. -- Gaia.
>